🌀 Patented · Filed Apr 7, 2026

Weather.
Predicted by coherence.

NHC's 5-day genesis probability sits around 50–60%. We validated a coupling-weighted coherence framework on 38 Atlantic hurricane seasons and landed at r = 0.706, p ≈ 10⁻⁵. Not a curve fit — a physics prediction with a single derived equation.

Treat the atmosphere as one coupled system with hydrological, geomagnetic, thermal, tidal, seismic, and heliospheric channels. Compute one scalar. Score a season.

Raising $400K → Open patent (PDF) Deck · slide 1

Validation · locked

38 seasons. One equation.

r = 0.706

Spearman rank · predicted vs. observed

p ≈ 10⁻⁵

Null-model falsification threshold

86.8%

Within-one-category accuracy

49.8%

Variance explained · vs. 24.7% SST-only

Atlantic seasons · 1982–2023

384K+

Historical records · 172 years

The physics

One equation. Seven channels.

C = C₀ · exp(−α · γ_eff)

γ_eff = Σᵢ wᵢ · γᵢ

Planetary coherence C decays against a weighted sum of decoherence channels. Each wᵢ is a physical coupling weight — not a curve fit — derived from domain-specific threshold conditions (SST 26.5 °C, shear magnitude, Saharan dust, atmospheric moisture, Kp coupling). Output: coherence state C, event probability, null-event probability, and the dominant channel driving either formation or suppression.

The fusion layer

Seven domains · one scalar.

Ocean Thermal

NOAA OISST v2.1

SST anomaly — 26.5 °C cyclogenesis gate

Geomagnetic

NOAA SWPC · Kp index

34,430 daily Kp records, 1932–2024

Hydrological

USGS Water Services

Streamflow at 13+ major U.S. dams

Tidal

NOAA CO-OPS

Coastal anomaly at 6+ stations

Seismic

USGS Earthquake Hazards

Global event catalog, stress proxy

Atmospheric

NOAA NWS + FAA NOTAM

Pressure + airspace-hold coupling

Heliospheric

NASA DONKI

CMEs, solar flares, geomagnetic storms

Patent

The filing.

Filing Date

April 7, 2026

Inventor

Rhet Dillard Wike · Council Hill, Oklahoma

Applicant

AIIT-THRESHOLD LLC

Claims

12 · method, system, null-event, teleconnection, validation

USPTO · Provisional Application for Patent

Method and System for Multi-Sensor Coupling-Weighted Coherence Analysis for Weather Event Prediction

Covers the coherence decay equation, the coupling-weighted decoherence sum, threshold-gated weight derivation, null-event probability computation, cross-system teleconnection detection, and the 38-season validation protocol as a falsifiability gate.

PDF MD source

Forward test · live scoreboard

2026 Atlantic season · on the record.

On April 8, 2026 — before the season began — the framework committed a public prediction. It is a bold, contrarian call: we forecast a hyperactive season while the official outlooks lean below-normal. That is the point. The number is locked, the consensus disagrees, and the season decides. Win or lose, it stays on the record.

AIIT coherence model

HYPERACTIVE · 20+ named storms

formation score 5.65 · locked Apr 8, 2026

NOAA outlook

Below-to-near-normal · 8–14 named

55% below-normal · 3–6 hurricanes

AccuWeather

11–16 named storms

private-sector seasonal forecast

Season to date

1 named storm — Arthur

formed Jun 17 · as of early Jul 2026

Honest status: it is early — roughly one month into a six-month season, and one storm by early July is near the historical pace. Nothing is settled. But our call sits well above the official consensus, so this is a real test: a quiet season proves us wrong, a late surge proves the framework caught something the standard models missed.

Read the locked prediction

The raise

$400,000.

Seed capital to take the framework from validated-retrospective to operational. Real-time sensor ingest, a production-grade scoring service, published daily genesis-probability feed, and the paper trail required to earn NHC benchmark entry.

Real-time ingest

Productionize the 7-domain sensor layer. NOAA/USGS/NASA/FAA/EPA feeds with failover and archival.

Scoring service

Hourly γ_eff computation. Daily coherence state. Per-basin genesis probability with dominant channel called out.

Public record

Every prediction committed to a tamper-evident public log before the event window. Win or lose on the record.

Benchmark entry

Peer-reviewed paper. NHC / ECMWF benchmark submission. License negotiations with insurers and emergency-management offices.

Inventor · Rhet Dillard Wike
Council Hill, Oklahoma · AIIT-THRESHOLD LLC

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Weather.Predicted by coherence.